No Real Risk With Melky - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

No Real Risk With Melky Stuck

Posted on November 19, 2012 at 08:37 AM.

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The next steps in Major League Baseball�s evolution are now just starting to be taken. When all of the drug speculation, tests, reports, and witch hunts began, the most interesting aspect of all of it was to see what the industry would do with players who were caught. For the most part, the caught offenders have basically faded away or already had a long term deal in place. Alex Rodriguez could continue to play after admitting he used performance enhancing drugs because of his 10 year deal with the Yankees. Other players fell into retirement or simply never really mattered. There was Manny Ramirez, but he became irrelevant on the field as his production dramatically declined.

But, the inevitable day has finally come. There are more to come such as the next Hall of Fame election, but this day finally came. It is a day when a player who is fresh off of a drug suspension hits the free agent market. The industry now has the delicate and difficult decision in trying to project performance when signing such a player. Was the player purely a creation of a drug or was the talent always present?

The Toronto Blue Jays concluded their whirlwind of a week by signing Melky Cabrera to a two year $16 million deal. The 28 year old switch hitting outfield is coming off a career season that saw him hit .346/.390/.516 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs, 60 RBI, and 13 stolen bases in 113 games. That season followed up his breakout year of .305/.339/.470 with 44 doubles, 5 triples, 18 home runs, 87 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. Of course, those statistics are clouded by Cabrera�s recent 50 game drug suspension that caused him to miss the last part of the season and the Giants taking the stand to not reinstate him during the playoffs.

The idea of a proven drug cheat getting a Major League job may not sit well for many. Even worse, the proven cheat actually tried to cover up his transgression by creating a fake website and saying that he wasn�t aware. For those actions, he�ll make $16 million over the next two years.

It doesn�t seem right, but Melky Cabrera did cost himself quite a bit of money. Cabrera made $6 million last season. He was named the All-Star Game MVP and he did win the batting title, even if the record won�t reflect it. At 28 years old and clearly peaking, Cabrera was easily in line for a four or five year deal that would�ve paid him $15-18 million per season. In essence, his mistake cost him, at minimum, approximately $45 million over the next four years. Unless Major League Baseball established a banishment policy, this is the best the industry can do in terms of punishment.

Cabrera has lost all credibility within the industry, every bit of respect of the fans and media, and a boatload of money. He wasn�t going to get blackballed for a couple of reasons. First, he is in the middle of his prime and is coming off of two great seasons. Because no expert can point to the difference performance enhancing drugs make in terms of production on the field, there is a feeling that Melky Cabrera can still be a quality player. Also, he�s a player who been on a World Series team as well as a couple of very good division winning teams. He is not some 36 year old veteran desperately trying to hang on and turning to drugs. There still may be some upside left.

That is clearly what the Blue Jays see. They must if they handed Cabrera $8 million to play for them this season while having to endure those extra questions and the extra coverage due to his presence. The Blue Jays are not signing Cabrera to be a star; they are simply signing him to be an above average player in a lineup that will house Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion.

The question--the unanswerable question until after the 2013 season--is whether or not Cabrera can be that player. From the age of 21 through age 24, Cabrera was more or less a regular player for the New York Yankees. Averaging 141 games per season, the pre-prime Cabrera hit .270/.332/.387 with an average of 22 doubles, 3 triples, 9 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. As a left fielder, he was, at best, an average defender according to the metrics UZR and defensive runs saved. The key thing to remember here--and likely what the Blue Jays are figuring--is Cabrera�s age. He is never going to be the prototypical power hitter, but during his first few seasons, it simply wasn�t there.

Then came his one disastrous year in Atlanta after the Yankees sent him to the Braves in exchange for Javier Vazquez. He would hit just .255/.317/.354. He was said to be out of shape, disinterested, and unfocused. While everyone is quick to point to that 2010 season as the tipping point and low point of his career, it is important to note his 2008 season with the Yankees was worse before he rebounded in their World Series season of 2009. It wasn�t as if Cabrera never had a down season. He was released the following winter and was only able to sign with the Kansas City Royals, a place where lesser talented free agents get to sign for big league jobs. Most in the industry viewed him as a fourth outfielder, at best. But, the Royals were there to give him a job.

It turned out that the Royals bet correctly as Cabrera had that breakout season. In a somewhat stunning move, the Royals traded Cabrera that winter to San Francisco for Jonathan Sanchez. Even with the suspension, the trade was a steal for the Giants as Cabrera helped keep the Giants afloat in the first half and ultimately gave them home field advantage with his performance in the All-Star game.

Projecting Cabrera for the 2013 is difficult. Looking at his career, his walk rate and strikeout rate have been consistent throughout. Even with last season�s breakout and failed drug test, he posted a walk rate of 7.2% and strikeout rate of 12.8%, almost mirroring his career rates of 7.3% and 12.1% respectively. Last season, his groundball percentage was a career high 52.2% while his flyball percentage was a career low 26.1%. Is that a product of PEDs? Aside from the obvious upticks in power statistics, Cabrera�s last two seasons have produced BABIP�s of .332 and .379 after not having a BABIP over .309. Was that PED�s?

The Blue Jays are likely looking at it in one of two ways. Cabrera's game was never predicated on home runs. He has developed into a gap hitter, has decent speed, and can play an average left field. If performance enhancing drugs helped his performance, a lack of PEDs shouldn�t completely strip away his value. Most players mature and hit their full potential in their age 27 season, which was 2012 for Cabrera. Since it isn�t known when he started using, it is difficult to pinpoint the impact on his performance. The Blue Jays could be looking at a player who posted a 4.6 WAR 2012 and could very well be that player over the course of a full season.

Or, they could be looking at his production during his time as a Yankee. Cabrera was young, raw, and still developing. During those years, he was approximately a 1.2 WAR player. Given some improvement, it is reasonable to expect him to be at least a 3 to 4 WAR player in 2013. If Cabrera can hit .290/.340/.420 with 10-15 home runs, 75 RBI, and 10-15 stolen bases, he would be in that range. For $8 million, the Blue Jays would be getting value.

Of course, there is the chance that Cabrera could outperform those expectations and really produce like he did for 113 games last season. If that is the case, the Blue Jays are getting a bargain. And, there is always the chance that Cabrera falls into his Atlanta stat line, which makes this gamble quite interesting for the Blue Jays.

The two year deal was a bit surprising as was the salary. Cabrera may have been better off taking a one year deal and then trying to re-establish his value. But, the Blue Jays look like they didn�t want to take a chance and wanted some sort of reward for going after Cabrera. The Blue Jays are paying a salary for a slightly above average outfielder. They take the small gamble that he won�t be that; it is a minimal gamble given Cabrera�s track record. But, as a reward, the Blue Jays could get a 6 WAR player for their $8 million. Cabrera gets some security while the Blue Jays take a risk that could have a nice payoff.

Alex Anthopoulos already made the Blue Jays the most interesting team in the American League. In one trade he brought in an elite shortstop, a potential ace, a workhorse, and two bench players. Every single one of them comes with some sort of question. Can Reyes stay healthy on turf? Can Josh Johnson build off of his positive 2012 and reclaim his status as an ace before he hits free agency? Can Mark Buehrle continue to be a 200 inning workhorse for another year? And now, will Melky Cabrera be like the player we saw in Kansas City and San Francisco or the one who frustrated in Atlanta and, at times, in New York?

If Anthopoulos hits right on most of his bets, the Blue Jays are legitimate playoff contenders. Of all his bets, the least risky one is Cabrera. The deal is short term and the salary isn�t all that high, even if Cabrera does fall short of reaching the production of his previous two seasons.

Anthopoulos becomes one of the first General Managers to operate in the new era of Major League Baseball. The suspended players have been punished. They won�t be blackballed. They are still skilled and can still be an asset to a team. The Blue Jays gained an asset in Melky Cabrera, even if he isn�t the same player who led the National League in hitting. Toronto isn�t paying him to be that nor or they expecting that. He will be a solid piece in what looks to be a very deep lineup.

Whether or not he is more than a solid piece won�t be answered until after the season. The most interesting team takes an interesting risk. They�ll see if it pays off at the end of the season. If it does, more teams will be willing to go after players who were previously suspended for PED use. The Blue Jays are merely one of the first to walk through that door. There will be many more in the future.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. For more baseball coverage, head over to his site, fullcountpitch.com. You can also join the discussion on Twitter @garyarmida.